US Canada Travel Declines Under Trump

The relationship between the United States and Canada has long been characterized by close ties, including a vibrant cross-border travel industry. However, during the Trump administration, this dynamic saw a significant shift. What exactly happened to US Canada travel declines under Trump, and what were the underlying reasons and impacts? This article delves into the data and sentiment that reshaped travel between these two North American neighbors.

Understanding the Shift: Why US Canada Travel Declined Under Trump

The period of the Trump presidency (2017-2021) brought about a noticeable change in travel patterns between the U.S. and Canada. While various factors influence cross-border movements, a combination of political rhetoric, policy shifts, and economic considerations played a pivotal role in the observed decline.

Rhetoric and Perceptions

One of the most frequently cited reasons for the downturn in Canadian travel to the U.S. was the change in political rhetoric emanating from Washington. President Trump's statements, including the suggestion that Canada should be the "51st state" and other perceived threats of annexation, were seen as offensive by many Canadians. This rhetoric contributed to a sense of unease and a feeling of being unwelcome in the United States.

Surveys indicated a direct link between this sentiment and travel intentions. A Canadian polling company found that Canadian travel to the U.S. could drop by as much as 21% due to President Trump's presence in office, with nearly three in ten Canadians intending to travel less. This "negative sentiment" was a significant factor in people reconsidering their visits.

Economic Impact and Exchange Rates

Economic factors also played a role. While tariffs imposed by the Trump administration primarily targeted goods, not people, they created an atmosphere of trade uncertainty that could indirectly affect travel costs and consumer confidence. The fluctuating exchange rate, particularly the decline of the US dollar relative to the Canadian loonie, made travel to Canada more expensive for Americans and travel to the U.S. less appealing for Canadians. This meant that Canadians, whose dollar had strengthened against the U.S. dollar, might have found their traditional shopping and leisure trips south of the border less economical.

Border Policies and Security

While direct travel bans did not specifically target Canada, broader immigration policies and increased border security measures under the Trump administration created a perception of stricter entry requirements and potential difficulties for travelers. News stories of tourists being detained and deported, even with correct paperwork, contributed to a feeling of unease about visiting the U.S.. This heightened scrutiny at the border, where officers had broad discretion, led some Canadians to feel that their ease of crossing could no longer be taken for granted.

The Data Speaks: Quantifying the Decline

The impact of these factors was not merely anecdotal; it was reflected in concrete travel statistics.

Canadian Visitor Numbers to the U.S.

Canada consistently sends more tourists to the U.S. than any other country, accounting for over a quarter of all international visitors and contributing billions to the U.S. economy annually. However, this trend saw a sharp reversal.

• In June, car crossings from Canada to the U.S. dropped by a significant 33%, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.
• Air travel from Canada to the U.S. also plummeted, with some reports indicating a 70% decrease in advance flight bookings between April and September compared to the previous year.
• Leisure bookings to American cities from Canadian travel agencies saw a 40% drop in February 2025 (likely referring to a past year during the Trump administration), with one in five customers canceling their trips.
• Canadian resident return trips from the U.S. by automobile fell by an "eye-popping 33.1 per cent" in June, and by air, they dropped 22.1 per cent compared to the same month a year prior.

U.S. Visitor Numbers to Canada

While the decline was more pronounced for Canadians traveling south, American visitation to Canada also experienced a downturn, albeit at a slower rate. Statistics Canada data showed a 10.4% decline in U.S. resident trips by automobile in June. May marked the fourth consecutive monthly drop in U.S. resident visitors to Canada, with a 5.6% decrease compared to May 2024 (again, likely a past year during the Trump administration).

Impact on Tourism and Local Economies

The decline in cross-border travel had tangible consequences for businesses and communities reliant on tourism.

Tourism Industry Challenges

Across the northern U.S. states, businesses that traditionally thrived on Canadian visitors felt the pinch. For instance, Kingdom Trails in Vermont, a popular destination for Canadian bikers, reported a 50% decline in Canadian members. Duty-free shops near the border also saw business drop by nearly 50%, with some smaller establishments facing the threat of closure. New Hampshire, a border state, experienced a 30% or more decline in Canadian tourism.

The U.S. Travel Association warned that a mere 10% reduction in Canadian visitor numbers could translate into 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses. This highlights the significant economic interdependence of the two nations through tourism.

Local Community Effects

Beyond the major tourism hubs, local communities along the extensive U.S.-Canada border, which often rely on the free flow of people and goods, faced challenges. The reduced cross-border traffic affected everything from small businesses to cultural exchanges that had long been a hallmark of the relationship. Some Canadian communities dependent on American visitors, such as Niagara Falls, Ontario, also saw a drop in revenue from U.S. travelers, though domestic and other international visitors helped offset some of this decline.

Beyond the Numbers: Human Stories and Cross-Border Relations

The statistics, while stark, only tell part of the story. The decline in travel also represented a strain on the personal connections and cultural exchange that define the U.S.-Canada relationship. Families separated by the border, friends planning joint vacations, and business professionals attending conferences all felt the ripple effects of increased uncertainty and perceived unwelcomeness. The "51st state" comments and trade disputes created a sense of "betrayal" among some Canadians, impacting the long-standing friendly alliance.

Conversely, Canada's tourism industry experienced a boom, with many travelers, including some who might have previously chosen the U.S., opting to explore Canadian destinations or travel overseas instead. This shift underscored a broader re-evaluation of travel preferences in response to the changing geopolitical landscape.

Conclusion

The period of the Trump administration undoubtedly marked a challenging chapter for US Canada travel declines under Trump. Influenced by political rhetoric, policy shifts, and economic factors, both Canadian visits to the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, American visits to Canada saw significant reductions. This decline impacted tourism industries and local economies on both sides of the border, highlighting the deep interconnectedness that defines one of the world's most enduring bilateral relationships.

As the global landscape continues to evolve, understanding these past trends is crucial for anticipating future shifts in cross-border travel. What are your thoughts on how political climates influence travel? Share your experiences or insights in the comments below!

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What were the main reasons for the decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. under Trump?

The primary reasons included President Trump's political rhetoric, such as the "51st state" comments, which created negative sentiment and a feeling of unwelcomeness among Canadians. Economic factors like tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations also played a role, making U.S. travel less appealing or more expensive for Canadians.

Q2: Did American travel to Canada also decline during this period?

Yes, American travel to Canada also saw a decline, although at a slower rate than Canadian travel to the U.S.. Factors such as trade uncertainty and the weakening of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian loonie contributed to this trend.

Q3: What was the economic impact of this travel decline?

The decline had a significant economic impact, particularly on U.S. states and businesses near the Canadian border that rely heavily on Canadian tourism. For instance, a 10% reduction in Canadian visitors to the U.S. could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses. Businesses reported substantial drops in Canadian customers and revenue.

Q4: How did Canada's tourism industry fare during this time?

Conversely, Canada's tourism industry experienced a flourishing period. Many international visitors and Canadians opted for domestic travel or chose Canada as an alternative destination to the U.S., leading to record levels in some sectors of the Canadian travel and tourism industry.